2008-05-08

The Financial Effect

(STOCK MARKET)
What's popular this year, 08:
Financials- Currently down
Retailers- Currently down
Energy- Currently up
Agriculture- Currently up

I own:
AMD- Advanced Micro Devices (a "Cramer" 'wall of shame' company/CEO)
KMX- Carmax (a "Buffett" stock pick)
EP- El Paso (a "Cramer" stock pick)
WBC- WABCO (a "Buffett" stock pick)
CEDC- Central European Distribution Corp. (a "Cramer" stock pick)

I use a mix of popularity, value, future/past growth, technical analysis (basic charting), personal feelings & intuition, and an OK grasp of 'what's happening' in the realm of my interests.

My thoughts about buying/selling these stocks:
(which may change at any moment depending on the news related to each company, etc.)

To me AMD is a good value at anything below $9. My next buy would be $6.05 or less. I missed the last drop to ~$5.90 because I was sleep deprived and wasn't thinking clearly. Oh well. This will see $21 again, but I'm not telling you when :)

KMX. I'd buy at $18.50 or better, and consider selling at $29 if I don't sell it for a better value elsewhere. The financial crisis (for lack of a better word) I believe is keeping this stock price down and slowing the current demand. But I believe this company is poised for good growth over the next 1-2 years. I think (50/50) that it may see $24-26 prices within a year.

EP. I'd buy more if it dropped to below $15.40, and probably consider selling at $21+. But given recent news regarding its expected earnings and the nat gas boom, I may decide to hang on a while (throughout the year).

WBC. I bought this at $40, very near it's low. Currently I'm up over 22% since I bought it early this year. I bought it for my kids, too. I don't plan on selling this company for a long time. It's a Buffett owned stock, as well. So far it's doing very well and has been flying under the CNBC news radar and isn't grabbing a lot of attention. I have a good feeling about this company.
I think that it will drop back down to @$45 again and possibly even $43-42. I think this is going to be 'a slow and steady wins the race' stock.

CEDC. I was finally able to decide between this company and FMX. I admit I was somewhat impatient when I chose CEDC, but you can only wait so long before you opportunity changes. FMX never went back below $42 and CEDC has a beautiful chart, so I chose CEDC at $60. I wouldn't be surprised if CEDC's price dropped to $52-49. I would buy more. This is another 'slow and steady wins the race' company. I expect it to continue rising for at least a year or more. I believe this can easily make it to $75-85, beyond that - ? if it consistently outperforms analysts expectations it shouldn't have a problem exceeding $100/share w/o becoming overvalued. I think that outperforming analysts expectations with a $2.7B growing company won't upset the analysts too much. A larger company would need a more stable outlook so as not to surprise analysts and give the image of a company that isn't controlling itself.

Stocks that will meet my chopping block at some point:
AMD
EP

Stocks that may meet my chopping block at some point:
KMX
CEDC

Stocks that I intend to hold, lest really bad news befalls them:
WBC

Misses:
BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe. I really wanted to get this one for my kids because they love toy trains (and it was in line with a long range outlook). By the time I found it's range (between $78 and upper $80's) and set a buy price @$78, it haphazardly kept going up, into the $90s and finally surpassing the $100 mark. Oh well.

Took a Big Hit:
SIGM Sigma Designs. This one I bought at @$40, very near its low at it's range at the time. The upper end was around $49. After a couple of times in the upper $40s I decided to sell it the next time it went up. It didn't. It went down into the upper $30s, then lower $30s. So I held tight and waited. Upper $20's :P I sold out at $27. It went to $15 and stayed down for some time. It's finally coming back. I think it may make it back to the low $40s. IDK. F@%king shortsellers!

BTW By the way, I'm not a stock broker or related to one.






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